Final Four

We finished another winning month with March picking up a little over 12 units. Nothing huge, but even 12 units of profit per month when our average play is 2 units is pretty darn good and would help me to more than double my bankroll year after year. Name me another investment that comes close to that!

On to the Final Four...The books are getting pretty even money coming in on both sides in each of the games as well as the over/under. The faves and the overs are a touch heavier which is to be expected in such high profile games where everyone wants to have a little stake in the games but nothing big enough for the books to move their lines in a significant way.

We are going to be stepping out on both games today and dropping 3* BOMBS in both match ups. Guys, the bottom line here is both games are essentially pick the winner games and in my opinion we have 2 superior teams...Duke and Butler. I'm not buying the "home court" advantage for Butler, but the familiarity of sleeping in their own beds and just being "home" does factor into the play. I hate to go against arguably the best coach in college hoops, Izzo, and the experience of this Spartan squad but Butler is just flat out the better team here. Look at it this way...Northern Iowa (my alma mater) beats Michigan State in most cases without Lucas. They just happened to have won the biggest game in the school's history a few days prior and ended up playing one of their worst games of the year against Sparty. They played terrible, missed free throws, missed uncontested lay-ups and flat out just let their nerves and the hype get to them yet it was a 2 point game with under 2 minutes left to go when Adam Koch (UNI's best player and almost 84% FT shooter) misses both free throws and then allows Michigan St to go down and make a bucket putting them up 4 with under a minute. Now we look at MSU's game in which Lucious had to hit a buzzer beater to get by Maryland. Or the 3 point win over New Mexico St. Or the melt down by Tennessee which allowed Sparty to squeak out a 1 point win. Fellas, this team has not won these games...the other teams lost them. Butler on the other hand has shown me a ton in regards to their mental ability to win games. They blew big leads in their Cuse and K-State games in which they could have easily succumb to the pressure of going up against 2 of the best teams in the nation...but they didn't! They allowed the comebacks, but regrouped in each case to go on and take back control and win the game. This speaks volumes! Butler is just flat out a better team than Sparty and with what they've shown me already in the tourney, they won't falter down the stretch like the 3 other teams Michigan St was lucky enough to encounter.

Moving on to Duke. I think you already know how I feel about this team since they were my prediction to cut down the nets before the tourney started. Too many people wrote off Duke and believed they were overrated all year long. This couldn't be further from the truth! This Duke team is typical of past teams except they actually have the post players this year. And with what I saw from Duke against Baylor's zone and team length, Duke should have no problem finding their shots against WV's zone. Matter of fact...if Duke would have made their open looks against Baylor it would have never even been a close game. And if WV wants to try and play man...good luck matching up with them. Again, we have a team that is just flat out better than it's opponent, has more experience, physically healthy and with a better coach...I'll take the Dukies laying a bucket!

NCAA Tourney Overall Record 19-10 +16.7 units
5* 0-1 -5.5 units
4* 2-0 +8 units
3* 3-1 +5.7 units
2* 11-7 +6.6 unit
1* 3-1 +1.9 unit

3* Butler -1
3* Duke -2

NBA Record: 60-48-2 +17.65 units
5* 1-0 +5 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 12-6 +16.05 units
2* 38-33-3 +3 units
1* 9-10-1 -2 units

2* Bucks -2
2* Nets +3 (-105)
1* Kings +8