Thursday, May 20, 2010

5/20

Nice day yesterday nailing both of our 3* BOMBS in MLB and going 6-3 overall to pick up just a touch over +7 units!!

It looks like we will be backing off our 1* plays for the time being since they have really cost us in the 1st quarter of the season, not only record wise, but more importantly...units! I don't care about the record part nearly as much as the units! For the time being, I will just monitor the plays on my own and maybe look to tweak things if they don't start to pan out.

Records aren't nearly important in money line sports such as baseball and hockey because your break even point varies based on your price. If I find a dog that is +175 and my numbers dictate a 40% chance they can win that game, I'm on it every time because it is a winning proposition in the long run at those odds. My break even point is just above 36% with those odds. If I go 4-6 (40%) on dogs of +175 I'll come out a unit ahead. So, you see how records can be extremely deceiving when playing ML sports. You may find a capper touting how he is hitting 65% for the year in baseball but they may be a high chalk player. In other words, if their average play is -175, they need to hit 64% just to break even.

Just a head's up on the Yanks tonight. I know Shields has been terrible against them and Pettite seems to be throwing well this season, outstanding in fact, I hope this may be enough evidence to help you steer clear:
Pettite's last 12 starts against the Rays = 4.8 ERA, 5-4 record, Rays batting .300+

I'll be back later to update our card, but I wanted to get our 3* BOMB out now. Good Luck!!

MLB 50-52 +5.98 units
5* 1-0 +5 units
4* 1-0 +4.2 units
3* 6-3 +7.35 units
2* 28-25 -1.58 units
1* 14-24 -8.99 units

3* BoSox -135

This is it for tonight...here would be our 1* plays: O's, DBags and Jays(L)



NBA Playoffs 22-12-1 +19.9 units
5* 1-1 -0.5 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 unit
3* 6-1 +14.7 units
2* 14-7 +12.4 units
1* 1-3-1 -2.3 units

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